Big Mike's Trading Blog

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Death to Mike Trend

BREAKING NEWS:  In our second blog story for the day, the indicator commonly called "Mike Trend" has been put out to pasture.

R.I.P.
Mike Trend
2009-2009

It is important to realize when something just isn't working, no matter how much time or how committed you are to it.  If it isn't better than what is already out there, or if it just flat out isn't good, then let it go (to indicator heaven).

For about a month I spent hours each day working on Mike Trend.  The goal was to create an indicator that was smooth yet fast, showing long term trends and short term reversals, all-in-one.

In the end, it just wasn't any better than the other more common tools already out there.  For instance, a good T3 moving average can identify reversals easily and is quite smooth.  And a good bid/ask volume indicator can show you upward and downward pressure of the market to identify long term trends, or you can just watch price itself on a big chart and spot the trend.

What should be learned from this is that you have to be careful in getting caught up with something that just doesn't work.

"Mike Trend" you will be missed, but not forgotten.

Mike

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

hi mike,

sorry ... the king is dead, it lives the king ...
look around nn for smoother faster better like ema(t) ema(t+2) ema(t+4)

nice weekend
wh

Sergei said...

Ok, then tell me what is better then moving average or combination 2 moving averages?
If it is subjective, then there is no winner. I doubt that Juric is any better then SMA, but it was good try, of course.

Big Mike said...

wh,

The king is dead, long live the king! (you were very close) :)

I am not familar with nn, what site is that?

I have tons of moving averages... of all sorts... the issue was not that it wasn't smooth enough, or that it wasn't fast enough. The issue was really that it wasn't those things while also being better than more common tools already available.

Mike

Big Mike said...

Sergei,

Jurik is very, very different than SMA. It is not necessarily better, but it will accomplish things the SMA cannot. Jurik JMA is much lower lag while retaining a smooth curve, while SMA is so smooth that it is very slow. It depends on what you are trying to accomplish.

I did try combining multiple MA's into one as well, but nothing useful came of it.

Mike

Sergei said...

Lag is positive thing, and could improve trading result. Or, put it other way, is it possibly statistically prove that absence of lag in indicator could improve trading results based on it? Of course not. Though, graphically indicator without a lag is perfect,and could be useful, but it is a matter of personal choice, not supported by anything real. Simple, lets do back testing of simple moving average crossover system, one with EMA another with Jurik, which results would be better, no definitive answer, I think.

Anonymous said...

Hey Mike and Sergei,

i belive that the jurik moving averages are a cobination of arma (auto regressive moving avergage) and nn (neural betworks) ... with weighting
what i mean with nn is neural networking(+ genetic optimizing) to adjust your emas

ema(t) --> ema(t+1) is the future right now

or what ever. but sergej has right all what we need are two or more moving average short, medium and long term and a goal for a trade 5 pips or the move or the trend or or or

best regards wh
Sorry for the bad explanation but my English is not the best. hope you understand me ...

Anonymous said...

Hey Mike,

Morning from France. Just a suggestion : could you introduce a label in your fabulous blog where we could find in real time which parameters (MA ..., indicators) you're using for your trading ?

cunparis said...

Hey Anonymous, I'm in France too. Paris. Where are you?

Mike - I'm interested in the bid/ask volume stuff. What are you using for that?

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